It is not every day that you see the metro-liberal elite swaying on stage to the tune of disco polo - a kind of nineties folk-meets-pop beloved by small town Poland. But this is no regular political rally, but an inauguration of a new party which is bound to further divide opposition to the ruling ultra-conservative government in Warsaw. The movement is led by Robert Biedron - the atheist LGBT activist mayor of the town of Slupsk and a likeable political figure.

The name of the party is Wiosna, which stands for ‘Spring’, but now also means serious political cringe. Robert Biedron with his rolled up sleeves, loose tie, questionable taste in music and a straight talk is aiming to achieve something that has not been done for years: broaden the appeal of the progressive side of Polish politics. And let’s be honest, Polish liberalism has had a patchy relationship with rural Poland. The polyglot slick liberals in in well cut suits, so beloved abroad, have always struck an awkward tone in the depths the countryside. It is not that they are unlikable. They are unrelatable.

So will his trick succeed? Probably not. Will he get a significant number of votes come the parliamentary election this Autumn? Probably yes. But his success is bound to be short lived. Make no mistake, Biedron is no Bernie Sanders of Polish politics. He is not here to take on the conservative right.

There has been certain continuity in Polish politics. The two most powerful parties of the day, the liberal Civic Platform and the ruling conservative Law and Justice party have pretty much been in continuous existence since 1990. The names and logos might have changed, but the people and the vision have largely remained the same for the last thirty years. And for the last ten years at almost every election we have a brand new progressive party being formed to the left of centre. And these parties come with one very specific goal - to peel votes away from the main liberal party.

Here, Biedron’s movement is no different. It is exactly what we have seen time over again. A small party being formed with the hope of taking upwards of thirty seats from the liberals. They get in on the wave of relentless criticism of Civic Platform and after four years of parliamentary squabble they slip back into the abyss of political insignificance.

But this time the stakes are higher.

Since the current nationalist government came to power in 2015 we have seen an unprecedented threat to the Polish democracy. The country is on a course away from the democratic Europe and towards the likes of Orban’s Hungary and Putin’s Russia. And since majority of Poles oppose such direction, winning elections is particularly tricky business for Law and Justice. However, this is where Mr Biedron comes to their rescue.

In our electoral system the largest parties get allocated disproportionally more seats in the parliament. The more parties there are in the opposition, the harder it is for them to win a majority. So Wiosna will likely effectively lock Civic Platform out of government and will help sustain Law and Justice in power for years to come.

Mr. Biedron accuses the current government of politicising the courts, controlling state run media, repressing journalistic freedom, wanting to pull out of the EU and undermining democracy. If he is serious about those existential threats to his country, he should recognise that currently the biggest threat to bringing about the change of government lies in is his own involvement in politics.